Flu Advice Would Vary Under U.S. Plan

In the worst case of a global flu epidemic, schools would close for three months and public events would be canceled.

In the most optimistic scenario, people merely would be told to wash their hands and stay home if they feel sick.

Those are the options the government plans to consider depending on the strength of a possible deadly flu epidemic. And the options would be graded like hurricanes: The worst case would be Category 5. The least-threatening outlook, Category 1.

Federal officials on Thursday released a grading system for flu pandemics. The steps

were taken to give the public some help in deciding how anxious to get if a deadly new flu appears in the United States.

The government also is releasing a wave of radio and TV spots to remind people not to be complacent about a potential contagion.

"As avian influenza slips from the headlines, people may begin to believe that the threat is no longer real," said U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt, in a Thursday press conference in Atlanta.

The system has been eagerly awaited by state and local health officials, who will have to make many of the decisions about how to control the impact of the next pandemic flu.

Federal officials say they don't expect a vaccine will be available for such a virus until at least six months into a pandemic. On Thursday, Leavitt granted companies protection from lawsuits for vaccines against the bird flu virus.

Under his declaration, all H5N1 vaccines developed through a grant, contract or cooperative agreement would be protected through all production stages from testing to use. The protection would run through February 2010.

And although the U.S. government has enough medicine for more than 22 million people, it's not clear that they will work against whatever virus emerges, and it's doubtful that will be enough if many of America's 300 million residents becomes ill.

So health officials plan to rely on old-fashioned measures ranging from home quarantine to closing schools and postponing sporting events. But those measures can increase a pandemic's economic fallout, and even have unintended consequences. Closing schools, for example, can keep adults home from work to care for children. And it doesn't help if older kids are sneezing on each other at the mall.

The new guidelines, from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, don't spell out exactly what infection-control steps states should take. But they do give an idea.

For example, in a Category 1 pandemic, there's no need to dismiss schools. But in a 2 or 3, states should consider dismissing students for up to four weeks. In a 4 or 5, they should consider closing the schools for up to 12 weeks.